Premier League · Dixon-Coles model

Statistical EPL predictions, built on a backtested model.

Team ratings, match probabilities, and expected goals from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model — with the reasoning behind every number, and an optional check against odds you find elsewhere. This is analysis, not a sportsbook: it doesn't take bets or handle money.

How this works

This is a statistical model, not a guarantee. It estimates match probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fit to English Premier League results — each team gets an attack and defense rating from historical goals, adjusted for home advantage and recent form. It does not know about injuries, tactics, weather, or anything that hasn't shown up in the scoreline data yet.

Numbers below are from a walk-forward backtest: at each point in time, the model is refit using only matches that happened before it, then scored on what actually happened next — the same information you'd have had in real time, no hindsight.

Accuracy

54.2%higher is better

vs. naive baseline: 45.0%

RPS (ranked probability score)

0.203lower is better

vs. naive baseline: 0.233

Log loss

0.979lower is better

vs. naive baseline: 1.063

Backtested on 1,507 matches (2021-08-13 to 2026-09-06). Baseline uses only home-field base rates, no team-specific skill.

This tool does not take bets or handle money. It shows probabilities and, if you provide odds yourself, the math for comparing them — what you do with that is your decision and your risk. Past performance of the model does not guarantee future results.

Upcoming matches

Predictions for the next matchday. Tap "Why?" on any market for the reasoning, or "Check my sportsbook odds" to see if there's value in what you're being offered.

Sat, Oct 10

Arsenal FC

Limited data

vs

Leeds United FC

Limited data

Match result

Arsenal FC

69.8%

Draw

17.3%

Leeds United FC

12.8%

Total goals

Over 2.5

56.8%

Under 2.5

43.2%

Both teams to score

Yes

47.6%

No

52.4%

Sat, Oct 10

Sunderland AFC

Limited data

vs

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

Limited data

Match result

Sunderland AFC

32.0%

Draw

23.1%

Brighton & Hove Albion FC

44.9%

Total goals

Over 2.5

54.0%

Under 2.5

46.0%

Both teams to score

Yes

56.2%

No

43.8%

Sat, Oct 10

Chelsea FC

Limited data

vs

AFC Bournemouth

Limited data

Match result

Chelsea FC

48.4%

Draw

21.3%

AFC Bournemouth

30.3%

Total goals

Over 2.5

62.4%

Under 2.5

37.6%

Both teams to score

Yes

62.3%

No

37.7%

Sat, Oct 10

Ipswich Town FC

Limited data

vs

Fulham FC

Limited data

Match result

Ipswich Town FC

25.9%

Draw

21.6%

Fulham FC

52.6%

Total goals

Over 2.5

57.5%

Under 2.5

42.5%

Both teams to score

Yes

57.3%

No

42.7%

Sat, Oct 10

Aston Villa FC

Limited data

vs

Brentford FC

Limited data

Match result

Aston Villa FC

43.2%

Draw

22.1%

Brentford FC

34.7%

Total goals

Over 2.5

60.2%

Under 2.5

39.8%

Both teams to score

Yes

61.3%

No

38.7%

Sat, Oct 10

Manchester United FC

Limited data

vs

Tottenham Hotspur FC

Limited data

Match result

Manchester United FC

54.5%

Draw

20.5%

Tottenham Hotspur FC

25.0%

Total goals

Over 2.5

62.3%

Under 2.5

37.7%

Both teams to score

Yes

60.7%

No

39.3%

Team ratings

Attack/defense ratings on a log scale (0 = league average). Sort any column.

	Team	Attack	Defense	Net rating ↓	Matches this season	Last 5
1	Arsenal FCLimited data	0.504	-0.490	+0.994	5	LWWWW
2	Manchester City FCLimited data	0.614	-0.342	+0.956	5	WWWWW
3	Liverpool FCLimited data	0.523	-0.095	+0.618	4	WWDDD
4	Hull City AFCLimited data	0.284	-0.251	+0.535	4	LDWW
5	Brighton & Hove Albion FCLimited data	0.381	-0.034	+0.415	5	WWDLW
6	Newcastle United FCLimited data	0.409	0.053	+0.356	5	WLDWD
7	Manchester United FCLimited data	0.335	-0.016	+0.351	5	DLDWL
8	Chelsea FCLimited data	0.376	0.025	+0.351	5	LDLWW
9	Brentford FCLimited data	0.350	0.015	+0.335	5	WDDDW
10	Aston Villa FCLimited data	0.316	0.027	+0.289	4	WLLLW
11	AFC BournemouthLimited data	0.308	0.051	+0.256	5	LDDDL
12	Nottingham Forest FCLimited data	0.187	0.003	+0.184	4	LWDLD
13	Leeds United FCLimited data	0.249	0.099	+0.150	4	WDDWL
14	Everton FCLimited data	0.041	-0.095	+0.137	4	WDDWL
15	Fulham FCLimited data	0.161	0.043	+0.117	4	DLLLW
16	Tottenham Hotspur FCLimited data	0.243	0.166	+0.077	3	LLLWL
17	Crystal Palace FCLimited data	0.162	0.105	+0.057	4	LWLLL
18	Sunderland AFCLimited data	0.106	0.066	+0.039	5	LLDWL
19	West Ham United FCLimited data	0.141	0.180	-0.039	0	WLLLW
20	Luton Town FCLimited data	0.172	0.460	-0.288	0	LLDLL
21	Wolverhampton Wanderers FCLimited data	-0.107	0.202	-0.309	0	DDLDL
22	Burnley FCLimited data	-0.066	0.327	-0.393	0	DLDLL
23	Leicester City FCLimited data	-0.134	0.325	-0.459	0	LWDWL
24	Ipswich Town FCLimited data	-0.043	0.430	-0.473	5	LWLLW
25	Watford FCLimited data	-0.273	0.372	-0.645	0	LLDLL
26	Southampton FCLimited data	-0.375	0.408	-0.783	0	LLDLL
27	Sheffield United FCLimited data	-0.195	0.638	-0.833	0	LLLLL
28	Norwich City FCLimited data	-0.561	0.447	-1.008	0	LDLLL
29	Coventry City FCLimited data	-1.124	0.181	-1.305	5	WLLLL